机构:[1]School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, Xi’an, 710071, China[2]State Key Laboratory of Dampness Syndrome of Chinese Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, 510120, PR China广东省中医院[3]School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, China[4]Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China[5]School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, 730070, China
Prediction methods have become a hot topic in intelligent decision making. Most of the existing prediction methods focus on the prediction accuracy and stability. As a second choice, accurate interval prediction can provide a relatively reliable reference in the sense of probability and provide help for assisting decision management. Therefore, we propose a novel interval prediction approach. Firstly, the decomposition method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is utilized to alleviate the complexity of the original time series, thereby generating a series of relatively smooth subseries. Secondly, a three-way clustering (TWC) algorithm is established by integrating sample entropy into probabilistic rough set, enriching the three-way clustering theory from the perspective of entropy. Thirdly, aiming at determining the optimal input dimensions of different neural networks, the feature selection technique based on phase space reconstruction (PSR) is constructed. Furthermore, an interval prediction system based on TWC is proposed to provide a new data-driven prediction method. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to predict the interval price of crude oil. On the one hand, the practicability of the constructed prediction approach is verified; on the other hand, it provides a new theoretical method for interval prediction of crude oil price. The experiment results show the proposed prediction approach can assist the decision-makers to make scientific and reasonable decisions. (C) 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V.
基金:
National Natural Science Foundation of China [72071152, 72161022]; Youth Innovation Team of Shaanxi Universities [2019]; Guangzhou Key Research and Development Program [202206010101]; General Project of Statistical Science Research of National Bureau of Statistics [2021LY078]; Science and Technology of Gansu Province Fund Project, China [20JR5RA394]; Phased research results of Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project of Gansu Province, China [2021YB059]; Innovation Fund Projects of Colleges and Universities in Gansu Province, China [2021A-036]; Research on intelligent decision-making model and patient management service model of RA remote multidisciplinary diagnosis and treatment of integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine [2022]
第一作者机构:[1]School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, Xi’an, 710071, China
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Sun Bingzhen,Bai Juncheng,Chu Xiaoli,et al.Interval prediction approach to crude oil price based on three-way clustering and decomposition ensemble learning[J].APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING.2022,123:doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2022.108933.
APA:
Sun, Bingzhen,Bai, Juncheng,Chu, Xiaoli,Sun, Shaolong,Li, Yongwu&Li, Hongtao.(2022).Interval prediction approach to crude oil price based on three-way clustering and decomposition ensemble learning.APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING,123,
MLA:
Sun, Bingzhen,et al."Interval prediction approach to crude oil price based on three-way clustering and decomposition ensemble learning".APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING 123.(2022)