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Nomogram for the prediction of crescent formation in IgA nephropathy patients: a retrospective study

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机构: [1]Beijing Univ Chinese Med, Shenzhen Hosp, Dept Nephrol, Shenzhen, Peoples R China [2]Jiujiang Hosp Tradit Chinese Med, Dept Nephrol, Jiujiang, Peoples R China [3]Guangdong Prov Hosp Chinese Med, Dept Nephrol, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [4]Guangzhou Char Hosp, Dept Hemodialysis, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [5]Guangdong Prov Hosp Chinese Med, Dept Hemodialysis, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
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关键词: IgA nephropathy Crescent Prediction Nomogram

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Background The 2017 Oxford classification of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) recently reported that crescents could predict a worse renal outcome. Early prediction of crescent formation can help physicians determine the appropriate intervention, and thus, improve the outcomes. Therefore, we aimed to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of crescent formation in IgA nephropathy patients.Methods We retrospectively analyzed 200 cases of biopsy-proven IgAN patients. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression was applied to screen for influencing factors of crescent formation in IgAN patients. The performance of the proposed nomogram was evaluated based on Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis.Results Multivariate logistic analysis showed that urinary protein & GE; 1 g (OR = 3.129, 95%CI = 1.454-6.732), urinary red blood cell (URBC) counts & GE; 30/ul (OR = 3.190, 95%CI = 1.590-6.402), mALBU & GE; 1500 mg/L(OR = 2.330, 95%CI = 1.008-5.386), eGFR < 60ml/min/1.73m2(OR = 2.295, 95%CI = 1.016-5.187), Serum IgA/C3 ratio & GE; 2.59 (OR = 2.505, 95%CI = 1.241-5.057), were independent risk factors for crescent formation. Incorporating these factors, our model achieved well-fitted calibration curves and a good C-index of 0.776 (95%CI [0.711-0.840]) in predicting crescent formation.Conclusions Our nomogram showed good calibration and was effective in predicting crescent formation risk in IgAN patients.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 泌尿学与肾脏学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 泌尿学与肾脏学
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q3 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2021版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2020版] 出版后一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Beijing Univ Chinese Med, Shenzhen Hosp, Dept Nephrol, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
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