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How to enhance the applicability of a risk prediction model for term small-for-gestational-age neonates in clinical settings?

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机构: [1]Division of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [2]Haizhu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China. [3]Department of Women's Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Clinical Specialty of Women and Child Health, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [4]State Key Laboratory of Dampness Syndrome of Chinese Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China. [5]Liuzhou Maternity and Child Healthcare Hospital, Affiliated Women and Children's Hospital of Guangxi University of Science and Technology, Liuzhou, China. [6]Ministry of Education-Shanghai Key Laboratory of Children's Environmental Health, Xinhua Hospital, Affiliated with School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China. [7]Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
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关键词: binary logistic regression birth cohort fetal biometrics obstetric care prediction model SGA

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To construct a simple term small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate prediction model that is clinically practical.This analysis was based on the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study (BIGCS). Mothers who had a singleton pregnancy, delivered a term neonate, and had an ultrasonography within 30 + 0 to 32 + 6 weeks of gestation were included. Term SGA was defined with customized population percentiles. Prediction models were constructed with backward selection logistic regression in a four-step approach, where model 1 contained fetal biometrics only, models 2 and 3 included maternal features and a time factor (weeks between ultrasonography and delivery), respectively; and model 4 contained all features mentioned. The prediction performance of individual models was evaluated based on area under the curve (AUC) and a calibration test was performed.The prevalence of SGA in the study population of 21 346 women was 11.5%. With a complete-case analysis approach, data of 19 954 women were used for model construction and validation. The AUC of the four models were 0.781, 0.793, 0.823, and 0.834, respectively, and all were well-calibrated. Model 3 consisted of fetal biometrics and corrected for time to delivery was chosen as the final model to build risk prediction graphs for clinical use.A prediction model derived from fetal biometrics in early third trimester is satisfactory to predict SGA.© 2023 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 妇产科学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 妇产科学
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q1 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2021版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2020版] 出版后一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Division of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [2]Haizhu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
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通讯机构: [1]Division of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [3]Department of Women's Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Clinical Specialty of Women and Child Health, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [7]Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [*1]Division of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, No. 9 Jinsui Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou 510623, China
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