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Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020.

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收录情况： ◇ SCIE

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机构： [1]Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China [2]JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China [3]Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese, University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China [4]Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA [5]Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China [6]School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China [7]College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China

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关键词： Coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 Basic reproduction number Republic of Korea Italy

摘要：

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively. Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2019]版：

大类 | 3 区医学

小类 | 3 区传染病学

最新[2025]版：

大类 | 2 区医学

小类 | 2 区传染病学

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出版当年[2018]版：

Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

最新[2023]版：

Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

影响因子： 4.8 最新[2023版] 5 最新五年平均 3.538 出版当年[2018版] 3.041 出版当年五年平均 3.202 出版前一年[2017版] 3.202 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者机构： [1]Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

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