机构:[1]Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 33, Yingfeng Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China.中山大学附属第二医院[2]Department of Radiology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 33, Yingfeng Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China.[3]Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 33, Yingfeng Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China.中山大学附属第二医院[4]The First Afliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 58, Zhongshan Rd.2, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China.中山大学附属第一医院[5]Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 58, Zhongshan Rd.2, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China.
BackgroundWe aimed to use the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database to build a nomogram to identify 30-day mortality risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) patients in intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsStepwise logistic regression and logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to fit two prediction models. Bootstrap method was used to perform internal validation.ResultsWe obtained baseline data of 535 DVT patients, 91 (17%) of whom died within 30 days. The discriminations of two new models were better than traditional scores. Compared with simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII), the predictive abilities of two new models were improved (Net reclassification improvement [NRI]>0; Integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]>0; P<0.05). The Brier scores of two new models in training set were 0.091 and 0.108. After internal validation, corrected area under the curves for two models were 0.850 and 0.830, while corrected Brier scores were 0.108 and 0.114. The more concise model was chosen to make the nomogram.ConclusionsThe nomogram developed by logistic regression with LASSO model can provide an accurate prognosis for DVT patients in ICU.
基金:
National Natural Science Fundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [81800420]
第一作者机构:[5]Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 58, Zhongshan Rd.2, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China.
共同第一作者:
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 33, Yingfeng Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China.[5]Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 58, Zhongshan Rd.2, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Shen Runnan,Gao Ming,Tao Yangu,et al.Prognostic nomogram for 30-day mortality of deep vein thrombosis patients in intensive care unit[J].BMC CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS.2021,21(1):doi:10.1186/s12872-020-01823-4.
APA:
Shen, Runnan,Gao, Ming,Tao, Yangu,Chen, Qinchang,Wu, Guitao...&Huang, Kai.(2021).Prognostic nomogram for 30-day mortality of deep vein thrombosis patients in intensive care unit.BMC CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS,21,(1)
MLA:
Shen, Runnan,et al."Prognostic nomogram for 30-day mortality of deep vein thrombosis patients in intensive care unit".BMC CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS 21..1(2021)