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An early novel prognostic model for predicting 80-day survival of patients with COVID-19

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机构: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, [2]Department of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Liver Disease of Guangdong Province, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, [3]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Huangshi Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) (Infectious Disease Hospital), Huangshi, Hubei, China
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关键词: COVID-19 nomogram prognosis predict survival

摘要:
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had an unprecedented impact worldwide, and it is of great significance to predict the prognosis of patients for guiding clinical management. This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Clinical records and laboratory results were retrospectively reviewed for 331 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Huangshi Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) (Infectious Disease Hospital) and Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. All COVID-19 patients were followed up for 80 days, and the primary outcome was defined as patient death. Cases were randomly divided into training (n=199) and validation (n=132) groups. Based on baseline data, we used statistically significant prognostic factors to construct a nomogram and assessed its performance. The patients were divided into Death (n=23) and Survival (n=308) groups. Analysis of clinical characteristics showed that these patients presented with fever (n=271, 81.9%), diarrhea (n=20, 6.0%) and had comorbidities (n=89, 26.9.0%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, UREA and LDH were independent risk factors for predicting 80-day survival of COVID-19 patients. We constructed a qualitative nomogram with high C-indexes (0.933 and 0.894 in the training and validation groups, respectively). The calibration curve for 80-day survival showed optimal agreement between the predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis revealed the high clinical net benefit of the nomogram. Overall, our nomogram could effectively predict the 80-day survival of COVID-19 patients and hence assist in providing optimal treatment and decreasing mortality rates.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 免疫学 2 区 微生物学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 免疫学 2 区 微生物学
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q1 MICROBIOLOGY Q2 IMMUNOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MICROBIOLOGY Q2 IMMUNOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China,
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